Тур де Франс 2011

I'm quite happy today since the Tour De France is starting, that's an event I've never missed during the last 15 years! This year's race looks as exciting as ever, at least on paper, with last year's winner Alberto Contador looking to defend his title against the likes of Andy Schleck, Bradley Wiggins or Ivan Basso. Here are the odds from Intertops (US OK):

                    Win Odds Place Odds

Alberto Contador -167 -833

Andy Schleck       +210 -238

Cadel Evans     +2000 +400

Ivan Basso     +2800 +560

Bradley Wiggins +3300 +660

Robert Gesink     +3300 +660

Samuel Sanchez +3300 +660

Frank Schleck     +4000 +800

Jürgen Van Den Broeck +5000 +1000

Andreas Klöden +6600 +1320

Levi Leipheimer +6600 +1320

Chris Horner         +8000 +1600

Janiz Brajkovic +8000 +1600

Alexandre Vinokourov +10000 +2000

Christian Vandevelde +10000 +2000

Damiano Cunego +10000 +2000

Ryder Hesjedal +10000 +2000

Roman Kreuziger +15000 +3000

Tony Martin         +15000 +3000

Place Odds: This allows you to choose the competitor/participant/team that you think will finish in the top three (1st, 2nd, 3rd) of the specified tournament/event/competition/race. Place odds are calculated as 1/5 of the outright odds to win the tournament/event/competition/race.

Tour De France Stage 1: Passage du Gois to Mont des Alouettes, 191.5 km

Today's stage is flat for the most part but it features a small climb at the very end so the sprinters might not be the ones who battle it out for crossing the line first today. The stage seems more suitable for riders like Gilbert or Cunego but the battle will surely be quite heated as every team would like to get a victory on the first day of this year's tour. Here are the odds for stage one from Intertops:

                                  Win Odds Place Odds

Philippe Gilbert       +140 -357

Thor Hushovd               +550 +110

Matthew Goss               +1400 +280

Alessandro Petacchi +1600 +320

Alexandre Vinokourov +2000 +400

Edvald Boasson Hagen +2000 +400

Joaquin Rojas                 +2000 +400

Thomas Voeckler         +2000 +400

Damiano Cunego         +2500 +500

Francisco Ventoso         +2500 +500

Mark Cavendish         +2800 +560

Alexandr Kolobnev         +4000 +800

Ben Swift                         +4000 +800

Cadel Evans                 +4000 +800

Fabian Cancellara         +4000 +800

Gerald Ciolek                 +4000 +800

Sylvain Chavanel       +4000 +800

Tom Boonen               +4000 +800

Andre Greipel             +5000 +1000

Borut Bozic             +5000 +1000

Pierre Rolland               +5000 +1000

Samuel Dumoulin       +5000 +1000

Samuel Sanchez       +5000 +1000

Tyler Farrar             +5000 +1000

Grega Bole             +6600 +1320

Marco Marcato     +6600 +1320

Romain Feillu             +6600 +1320

Simon Gerrans       +6600 +1320

Place Odds: This allows you to choose the competitor/participant/team that you think will finish in the top three (1st, 2nd, 3rd) of the specified tournament/event/competition/race. Place odds are calculated as 1/5 of the outright odds to win the tournament/event/competition/race.

Good luck!

The big favorite for yesterday's stage won it comfortably, Philippe Gilbert left everybody behind as he sprinted towards the finishing line. But there was another major event yesterday, a mass fall in the pack with nine km left that penalized a few big names including Alberto Contador who is now around 80 seconds behind the likes of Andy Schleck, Ivan Basso or Cadel Evans in the general classification.

The rankings will surely suffer some modifications today because we'll have a special stage: the team time-trial!

Here are the odds for today's stage from Intertops:

Team Garmin Cervelo +175

HTC Highroad +200

Radioshack +275

Sky +700

Team Leopard Trek +700

Rabobank +2500

Omega Pharma Lotto +2800

BMC +5000

Liquigas Cannondale +5000

Katusha +6600

Saxo Bank Sungard +6600

Astana +10000

Quick Step +10000

Movistar +15000 +3000

AG2R La Mondiale +20000

Lampre ISD +20000

Vacansoleil DCM +20000

Europcar +25000 +5000

Euskaltel Euskadi +30000

FDJ +30000 +6000

Cofidis +35000

Saur Sojasun +35000

Good luck!

As expected, Team Garmin have won the time trial with BMC coming in second place and Sky in third spot. The win is quite important as Thor Hushovd, Garmin's experienced Norwegian rider, is the new leader of the overall classification. Hushovd will wear the yellow jersey tomorrow and he will probably hold on to it for at least a couple of days.

Stage 3 will be one for the sprinters, that's quite obvious. It will start at Olonne-sur-Mer while the finishing line is at Redon for a total length of 198 km.

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/300/PROFIL.gif

There are just a few small hills to go past but the last kilometers are totally flat so we will most certainly see a mass sprint. Here are the odds for today's stage from Intertops:

Mark Cavendish -154

Tyler Farrar +550

Alessandro Petacchi +1000

Andre Greipel +1200

Thor Hushovd +1600

Denis Galimzyanov +2500

Ben Swift +3300

Edvald Boasson Hagen +4000

Tom Boonen +4000

Jose Joaquim Rojas +5000

Matthew Goss +5000

Philippe Gilbert +5000

Borut Bozic +6600

Fabian Cancellara +6600

Francisco Ventoso +6600

Romain Feillu +6600

Sylvain Chavanel +8000

British sprinter Mark Cavendish is obviously the big favorite for today but you can never know what will happen during a mass sprint, there will be a lot of tension there today and we might be see a few riders hitting the deck again because of that.

The favourite didn't win today, Mark Cavendish was not anywhere near the first place but I'm happy to report that US sprinter Tyler Farrar clinched a special victory! It's special for two reasons: first, an American rider winning a stage on the 4th of July is always a nice moment and secondly Tyler dedicated the success to his best friend Wouter Weylandt, the young man who died during the Tour Of Italy. In fact, Farrar pulled out of the Tour Of Italy immediately after his best friend's death because he was devastated... Now he had the chance to dedicate a victory to his pal and he made a W with his hands while crossing the finishing line today. I hope to find a photo of that special moment and post it here later.

Here is the W, these are the kinds of emotions that cycling has to offer:

Today's stage will be a bit shorter, only 172.5 km, but it will not end in a mass sprint because there will be a third category climb right at the finishing line. The riders will start in the city of Lorient and will go through a 4th category climb in the middle of the stage before reaching the Mur-de-Bretagne which means "The Wall of Britany". Why do they call it that way? It's fairly obvious: it's short but steep, a 2.0 km climb with an average slope of 6.9 %!

The favorite is Philippe Gilbert again, the Belgian that has already won the opening stage of this year's Tour De France but the battle will be fierce today. Here are the odds from William Hill:

Stage 4 - Winner

4/7  Philippe Gilbert

8/1  Cadel Evans

11/1 Alberto Contador

20/1 Damiano Cunego

25/1 Alexandre Vinokourov

28/1Samuel Sanchez

28/1Thomas Voeckler

28/1Jose Joaquin Rojas

33/1Robert Gesink

33/1Andy Schleck

40/1Jurgen Van Den Broeck

40/1Frank Schleck

40/1Luis Leon Sanchez

50/1Alexandre Kolobnev

50/1Christopher Horner

50/1Thor Hushovd

50/1Fabian Cancellara

50/1Edvald Boasson Hagen

50/1Ryder Hesjedal

50/1Sylvain Chavanel

50/1Rigoberto Uran

50/1Francisco Ventoso

50/1Matt Goss

50/1Peter Velits

Good luck!

Philippe Gilbert missed the chance to win a stage on his birthday, he was beaten on the final climb as Alberto Contador himself launched an attack followed by Australian rider Cadel Evans who eventually went on to cross the line a few centimeters ahead of Contador. Thor Hushovd remains in command of the overall classification but his advantage over second placed Evans is incredibly slim: just one second!

That is a very slim advantage.

I know you are really interested in cycling events and this is THE event of the year.....but I want to know if you will have a little flutter on this race and who you will be betting on, assuming you do have a flutter.

blue

I don't know if I'll be betting on this, I guess I'll probably gamble on one of the stages. I think that Alberto Contador is the strongest and that he will make that count once we get to the tough mountain stages in the Alps and Pyrenees but if the other strong riders like the Schleck brothers, Evans, Brajkovic and so on will forge some sort of an alliance to put Contador in difficulty then they might have a chance. It's too early to say though, it's only the first of the three weeks.

I don't know if I'll be betting on this, I guess I'll probably gamble on one of the stages. I think that Alberto Contador is the strongest and that he will make that count once we get to the tough mountain stages in the Alps and Pyrenees but if the other strong riders like the Schleck brothers, Evans, Brajkovic and so on will forge some sort of an alliance to put Contador in difficulty then they might have a chance. It's too early to say though, it's only the first of the three weeks.

I guess it is a bit early yet, as you rightly say.  Will be interesting to see the betting change over this time.

Thanks Johnny.

blue

Today's stage will be beautiful for the viewers but it might not be very enjoyable for the riders. It will start at Carhaix and it will take the riders through 164.5 km before arriving at Cap Frehel, one of the most beautiful places in France. Cap Fréhel, with its 400 hectares of wilderness, is home to one of the most beautiful coastal landscapes in France. A heritage site, it is also the largest area of coastal moorland in Brittany.

The profile of the stage is fairly flat but the riders might encounter some wind problems because almost half of the route will be on the shores of the Atlantic and wind tends to blow quite heavily there.

The stage will probably end in a mass sprint so the fast men are the favorites again, here are the odds from Intertops:

Mark Cavendish (THR) -120

Tyler Farrar (GRM) +333

Jose Joaquin Rojas (MOV) +1200

Alessandro Petacchi (LAM) +1400

Andre Greipel (OLO) +1800

Denis Galimzyanov (KAT) +2000

Romain Feillu (VCD) +2000

Ben Swift (SKY) +2500

Edvald Boasson Hagen (SKY) +2500

Thor Hushovd (GRM) +2500

Tom Boonen (QST) +3300

Fabian Cancellara (LEO) +4000

Matthew Goss (THR) +4000

Philippe Gilbert (OLO) +4000

Mark Renshaw (THR) +5000

Sebastien Hinault (ALM) +5000

Alexandre Vinokourov (AST) +6600

Borut Bozic (VCD) +6600

Geraint Thomas (SKY) +6600

Samuel Dumoulin (COF) +6600

Sylvain Chavanel (QST) +6600

Thomas Voeckler (EUC) +6600

Francisco Ventoso (MOV) +8000

Cadel Evans (BMC) +10000

Gerald Ciolek (QST) +10000

Gert Steegmans (QST) +10000

Jurgen Roelandts (OLO) +10000

Sebastien Turgot (EUC) +10000

William Bonnet (FDJ) +10000

Anthony Roux (FDJ) +15000

Fabio Sabatini (LIQ) +15000

Jeremie Galland (SAU) +15000

Tomas Vaitkus (AST) +15000

It looks like we're going to have another duel between Cavendish and Farrar today, I think that Cavendish will not miss his chance this time. Good luck!

And I was right, Mark Cavendish pulled off an amazing sprint today and managed to beat Philippe Gilbert on the finishing line. The fast man from the Isle of Man recorded his first victory in this year's Tour De France and he will surely do his best to add at least another stage to his tally before we reach Paris.

Unfortunately there were many crashes inside the peloton today and several favorites hit the deck: first Bradley Wiggins, then Janez Brajkovic and Robert Gesink and last but not least Alberto Contador himself. Luckily most of the falls didn't have severe consequences but that wasn't the case for poor Brajkovic, take a look:

Unfortunately Brajkovic was unable to continue the race due to the serious blow to the head, he left the race in an ambulance. I was hoping that he would have a great Tour this year so I'm quite sad that he had to leave the race like that. However, he is just 27 years old so we will probably see him again in France next year.

The overall classification remains unchanged, Thor Hushovd holds on to the yellow jersey with Cadel Evans just one second behind him.

What a bummer for him and that looks a really nasty cut too.

Still a really tight race then Johnny.  I guess it adds to the excitement.

blue

What a bummer for him and that looks a really nasty cut too.

 

Still a really tight race then Johnny.  I guess it adds to the excitement.

 

blue

 

The race is extremely nervy and I guess that's why we're witnessing all these falls. It always hurts seeing a rider leaving the race due to a fall but I guess the difficulty is what makes this sport fascinating.

Stage 6 is coming up today and it's the longest of them all: 226.5 km! The race starts in Dinan and will take the riders to Lisieux on a route that is everything else but flat, the road will go up and down all day long.

There will be a rather serious short climb just before the finish so it seems that Belgian rider Philippe Gilbert is the favorite again along with other so-called "puncheurs". Here are the odds for stage 6 from Intertops:

Philippe Gilbert (OLO) +300

Mark Cavendish (THR) +500

Thor Hushovd (GRM) +550

Jose Joaquin Rojas (MOV) +650

Edvald Boasson Hagen (SKY) +1400

Alexandre Vinokourov (AST) +2000

Romain Feillu (VCD) +2000

Matthew Goss (THR) +2200

Thomas Voeckler (EUC) +2200

Tyler Farrar (GRM) +2200

Cadel Evans (BMC) +2800

Alessandro Petacchi (LAM) +3300

Geraint Thomas (SKY) +3300

Jerome Pineau (QST) +3300

Ben Swift (SKY) +4000

Damiano Cunego (LAM) +4000

Sylvain Chavanel (QST) +4000

Alexandr Kolobnev (KAT) +5000

Andre Greipel (OLO) +5000

Borut Bozic (VCD) +5000

David Millar (GRM) +5000

Fabian Cancellara (LEO) +5000

Jurgen Van Den Broeck (OLO) +5000

Marco Marcato (VCD) +5000

Sebastien Hinault (ALM) +5000

Alberto Contador (SBS) +6600

Bjorn Leukemans (VCD) +6600

Francisco Ventoso (MOV) +6600

Johnny Hoogerland (VCD) +6600

Juan Antonio Flecha (SKY) +6600

Linus Gerdemann (LEO) +6600

Rigoberto Uran (SKY) +6600

Samuel Sanchez (EUS) +6600

Tony Gallopin (COF) +6600

Daniel Oss (LIQ) +8000

Denis Galimzyanov (KAT) +8000

Gerald Ciolek (QST) +8000

Luis-leon Sanchez (RAB) +8000

Nicolas Roche (ALM) +8000

Pavel Brutt (KAT) +8000 +1600

Samuel Dumoulin (COF) +8000

Leonardo Duque (COF) +10000

Vasil Kiryienka (MOV) +10000

We will surely see another fierce battle today and I believe that Gilbert is the most likely to win indeed. I don't agree with the bookies on Cavendish though, I think that he won't be anywhere near the winner when the stage ends. Good luck!

The riders had to face a long stage and some heavy rain today but thankfully all of them reached the finishing line in good shape, not too many tumbles today despite the wet conditions. Today's winner was Norwegian rider Edvald Boasson Hagen, he tried his luck yesterday too but that time he attacked too far away from the line, now his timing was perfect and the rivals couldn't deny him on the sprint. Australian Matthew Goss came in second while Thor Hushovd arrived third and secured the yellow jersey for at least one more day.

Oh, and by the way, I was right about Mark Cavendish: he arrived in... 101st position today! ;)

Today’s profile is the flattest of this year’s race, the start is in the city of Le Mans and the riders will pedal for 218 km before reaching the finishing line in Chateauroux. This stage has "mass sprint" written all over it in my view.

As always, when we talk about a mass sprint Mark Cavendish is the big favorite and the odds from Intertops surely reflect that:

Mark Cavendish (THR) -175

Tyler Farrar (GRM) +500

Alessandro Petacchi (LAM) +1600

Andre Greipel (OLO) +2000

Edvald Boasson Hagen (SKY) +2000

Jose Joaquin Rojas (MOV) +2000

Ben Swift (SKY) +2500

Denis Galimzyanov (KAT) +2500

Romain Feillu (VCD) +2500

Thor Hushovd (GRM) +2800

Matthew Goss (THR) +4000

Philippe Gilbert (OLO) +6600

Tom Boonen (QST) +6600

Borut Bozic (VCD) +8000

David Millar (GRM) +8000

Fabian Cancellara (LEO) +8000

Gerald Ciolek (QST) +8000

Sebastien Hinault (ALM) +8000

Alexandre Vinokourov (AST) +10000

Geraint Thomas (SKY) +10000

Samuel Dumoulin (COF) +10000

Sandy Casar (FDJ) +10000

Thomas Voeckler (EUC) +10000

William Bonnet (FDJ) +10000

Alexandr Kolobnev (KAT) +12500

Sebastien Turgot (EUC) +12500

Gert Steegmans (QST) +15000

Jurgen Roelandts (OLO) +15000

Marco Marcato (VCD) +15000

Tony Martin (THR) +15000

I think that Cavendish will win today, I can't see anybody beating him in the final sprint. But you can never know in cycling, the riders will have to be fully concentrated for 218 km in order to avoid falls and other unfortunate incidents. Good luck!

Mark Cavendish did win again today, his second victory of the 2011 Tour and his 17th victory in the French race until now. It was a special one too because his very first win in the Tour De France was in 2008 and the finishing line was in the very same town of Chateauroux. The British rider seems unbeatable in the sprints so he will probably win one or two more stages before the end of the tour.

Unfortunately there were some crashes again today and there also was a big victim: British favourite Bradley Wiggins had to retire after taking a bad tumble in the second part of the stage. Wiggins was hoping to finish somewhere in the top 3 this year so ending the race like that surely is quite painful for him and his fans.

Thor Hushovd remains in command of the overall classification but I'm afraid that tomorrow will be his last day in yellow, the race will enter the mountains and Hushovd will not be able to compete with the climbers.

We'll finally get into the mountains today, not the Alps or the Pyrenees but the Massif Central. It's a medium difficulty mountain stage but it will surely do some damage as most riders will surely not be able to hang on and arrive with the big favorites. The stage is 189 km long and the main difficulty is a second category climb, the Col de la Croix Saint-Robert - 6.2 km climb to 6.2 %.

The big favourites will start their battle today and we will surely witness some attacks between them on that climb. Intertops sees Alberto Contador as the favorite for today's stage, here are the odds:

Alberto Contador +400

Cadel Evans +400

Phillipe Gilbert +650

Alexandre Vinokourov +1200

Jurgen Van Den Broeck +1400

Thomas Voeckler +1600

Frank Schleck +2000

Rigoberto Uran +2000

Samuel Sanchez +2200

Jerome Pineau +2500

Andy Schleck +2800

Jakob Fuglsang +2800

Andreas Kloden +3300

Damiano Cunego +3300

David Moncoutié +4000

Edvald Boasson Hagen +4000

Geraint Thomas +5000

Nicholas Roche +5000

Robert Gesink +5000

Sylvain Chavanel +5000

Alexandre Kolobnev +6600

Cyril Gauthier +6600

Johnny Hoogerland +6600

Anthony Charteau +8000

David Millar +8000

Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil +8000

Peter Velits +8000

Roman Kreuziger +8000

Thor Hushovd +8000

Arthur Vichot +10000

Benat Intxausti +10000

Bjorn Leukemans +10000

Fabian Cancellara +10000

John Gadret +10000

Luis Leon Sanchez Gil +10000

Sandy Casar +10000

Bauke Mollema +12500

Linus Gerdemann +12500

Pierre Roland +12500

Rein Taaramae +12500

Arnold Jeanneson +15000

Dries Devenyns +15000

Tony Martin +15000

Wouter Poels +15000

I agree with the bookies this time, I think that Contador will try hard to win this stage and cut back some of the deficit that he has in the overall standings. However, if Philippe Gilbert will manage to stay close to the leading bunch at the top of the climb then he will be the most likely winner. Good luck!

We had a surprise winner today, Movistar's Portuguese rider Alberto Rui Costa won the first summit finish of the Tour de France, finishing alone at Super-Besse after having been in breakaway since the 8th kilometre of the stage. Philippe Gilbert came in second while Cadel Evans finished 3rd. The other big surprise of the day was that Thor Hushovd defended his yellow jersey, nobody expected him to finish the stage with the main favorites but he pulled it off somehow, hats off to him! He might be unable to do that again tomorrow though, we'll have another difficult mountain stage on Sunday...

Today's stage will be a real leg-braker: except for the opening 50 km there will be just climbs and descents all the way to the finishing line. There will be no less than 8 medium-difficulty climbs including three 2nd category climbs that will surely make a difference.

Here are the odds for today's stage from Intertops:

Philippe Gilbert (OLO) +300

Thomas Voeckler (EUC) +800

Edvald Boasson Hagen (SKY) +1000

Cadel Evans (BMC) +1400

Thor Hushovd (GRM) +1600

Alexandre Vinokourov (AST) +2000

Jose Joaquin Rojas (MOV) +2000

Damiano Cunego (LAM) +2200

Grega Bole (LAM) +2500

Johnny Hoogerland (VCD) +2500

Jerome Pineau (QST) +3300

Leonardo Duque (COF) +3300

Rigoberto Uran (SKY) +3300

Anthony Charteau (EUC) +4000

Anthony Roux (FDJ) +4000

Geraint Thomas (SKY) +4000

Jeremy Roy (FDJ) +4000

Juan Antonio Flecha (SKY) +4000

Marco Marcato (VCD) +4000

Borut Bozic (VCD) +5000

Cyril Gautier (EUC) +5000

Fabian Cancellara (LEO) +5000

Francisco Ventoso (MOV) +5000

Gorka Verdugo (EUS) +6600

Jens Voigt +6600

Philippe Gilbert is the obvious favourite for such a hilly stage but I believe that he might find himself in difficulty if the big guns like Contador, Evans or the Schleck brothers will decide to up the tempo before the last two climbs of the day. Perhaps the most interesting thing to watch today will be the battle for the yellow jersey, Thor Hushovd managed to hang in there yesterday but Cadel Evans and his BMC team might try to do some damage today and get that yellow jersey before the rest day on Monday. Good luck!

Another nervy stage today and unfortunately there were two more prominent victims: Andre Vinokourov and Jurgen Van Den Broeck were forced to retire after a terrible fall on a downhill section. As for the actual race, there was another breakaway victory and this time it was Spanish rider Luis Leon Sanchez who grabbed the honours. The heart and soul of the breakaway was French rider Thomas Voeckler and for good reasons: he went on to clinch the yellow jersey as Thor Hushovd arrived at the finishing line with a delay around 5 minutes. There will be a rest day tomorrow, a well-deserved one for the riders. Here is how the top of the overall classification looks like at the end of the first week of the race:

General classification after stage 9

1 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Team Europcar 38:35:11

2 Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Spa) Rabobank Cycling Team +0:01:49

3 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team +0:02:26

4 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek +0:02:29

5 Andy Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek +0:02:37

6 Tony Martin (Ger) HTC-Highroad +0:02:38

7 Peter Velits (Svk) HTC-Highroad +0:02:38 

8 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Team RadioShack +0:02:43

9 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto +0:02:55

10 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Leopard Trek +0:03:08

I'll try to analyse the situation in detail tomorrow, stay tuned.

The riders have a well-deserved rest day today in the Tour De France so it's a good opportunity to have a look at the situation after the first week. I will use the favorites list that I have posted at the beginning of this thread, the top 19 favorites, their outright odds from Intertops at the start of the race and their current situation:

Alberto Contador    -167    - still in the race, currently 16th

Andy Schleck          +210    - still in the race, currently 5th

Cadel Evans        +2000    - still in the race, currently 3rd

Ivan Basso        +2800    - still in the race, currently 11th

Bradley Wiggins    +3300    RETIRED

Robert Gesink        +3300    - still in the race, currently 15th

Samuel Sanchez    +3300    - still in the race, currently 20th

Frank Schleck        +4000    - still in the race, currently 4th

Jürgen Van Den Broeck +5000    RETIRED

Andreas Klöden    +6600    - still in the race, currently 8th

Levi Leipheimer    +6600    - still in the race, currently 36th

Chris Horner            +8000    RETIRED

Janiz Brajkovic    +8000    RETIRED

Alexandre Vinokourov RETIRED

Christian Vandevelde +10000    - still in the race, currently 19th

Damiano Cunego    +10000    - still in the race, currently 12th

Ryder Hesjedal    +10000    - still in the race, currently 43rd

Roman Kreuziger    +15000    - still in the race, currently 115th

Tony Martin            +15000  - still in the race, currently 6th

As you can see the first week produced several victims among the top favorites, no less than five of them retired due to crashes. Moreover, the likes of Leipheimer, Hesjedal or Kreuziger are still in the race but they have no chance of winning it anymore.

Now let's have a look at the current outright odds from Intertops, there are some big changes:

Alberto Contador +125

Andy Schleck +135

Cadel Evans +350

Frank Schleck +2000

Ivan Basso +2800

Andreas Klöden +3300

Samuel Sanchez +5000

Robert Gesink +8000

Luis Leon Sanchez +10000

Peter Velits +10000

Thomas Voeckler +12500

Tony Martin +12500

Damiano Cunego +15000

As you can see Contador is still the top favorite but the odds have changed dramatically in Cadel Evans' case, the bookies believe that he has a much better chance now. Some other riders like Luis Leon Sanchez, Thomas Voeckler and Peter Velits are now included in the list but I seriously doubt their chances although Velits and Sanchez might have what it takes to finish somewhere in the top 10. The first big mountain stage is coming up next Thursday and that is when we will know more about who can and who can not win this year's tour. In my view the battle will be between Contador and Schleck, just like last year, but Cadel Evans might take advantage of that rivalry and surprise both top contenders. The bottom line is that the race will be fierce this week as the favorites are still pretty close together in the rankings.

Time for the 10th stage today and in my view it's not a special one, just a transition stage towards the Pyrenees. The stage is quite short too, just 158 km, and it doesn't feature major climbs.

I am quite sure that there will be a mass sprint on the finishing line today, let's see the odds from Intertops:

Mark Cavendish (THR) +200

Philippe Gilbert (OLO) +700

Edvald Boasson Hagen (SKY) +800

Alessandro Petacchi (LAM) +1400

Tyler Farrar (GRM) +1400

Jose Joaquin Rojas (MOV) +1600

Matthew Goss (THR) +1600

Andre Greipel (OLO) +2000

Romain Feillu (VCD) +2000

Jerome Pineau (QST) +2200

Geraint Thomas (SKY) +2500

Simon Gerrans (SKY) +2800

Anthony Roux (FDJ) +3300

Ben Swift (SKY) +4000

Francisco Ventoso (MOV) +4000

Gerald Ciolek (QST) +4000

Mikhail Ignatyev (KAT) +4000

Samuel Dumoulin (COF) +4000

Sebastien Hinault (ALM) +4000

Sylvain Chavanel (QST) +4000

Alexandr Kolobnev (KAT) +5000

Blel Kadri (ALM) +5000

Denis Galimzyanov (KAT) +5000

Jakob Fuglsang (LEO) +5000

Jeremy Roy (FDJ) +5000

Julien El Fares (COF) +5000

Marco Marcato (VCD) +5000

Sandy Casar (FDJ) +5000

The obvious name whenever we talk about a sprint is Mark Cavendish, he is the fastest man in the bunch and everybody knows it. However, I think that he will face a fierce battle with the likes of Tyler Farrar and Alessandro Petacchi today. Adre Greipel is also worth watching, he is fast and he wants to prove that in the most important cycling race on the planet. Good luck!

Well, I dropped a hint about Andre Greipel and he won! :) He managed to beat Mark Cavendish by only a few inches in the mass sprint and the victory surely is sweet for Greipel because him and Cavendish are not very good friends. Last season they were in the same team and Greipel had a few things to say when the team directors decided to employ Cavendish in the big races instead of him. He got his revenge now...

There also is a moral winner at the end of today's stage and that is Dutch rider Johnny Hoogerland. This lad was terribly unlucky on Sunday when a stupid driver on a car of the French Television made a wrong move and threw Johnny out of the road and straight into a barbed wire fence. I guess the picture says more than I could do...

Hoogerland managed to end Sunday's stage and was taken straight to the hospital. He needed no less than 33 stitches on his legs but guess what, today he was back in the saddle and he finished the stage along with all the others!

Hats off to him, only a few people have such fighting spirit and he surely is one of them!

Definitely hats off to him.  That looks horrific and 33 stitches  - that is a huge amount.  Amazing that he was back in the saddle.

Thanks Johnny for making this such an interesting thread.

blue

Today will see the riders taking on the last quiet flat stage before the big mountains. It also is one of the last opportunities for the sprinters to push for a victory so we will most likely see a mass sprint today unless something very unusual happens.

Mark Cavendish is the favourite again but Andre Greipel's odds are higher now, let's see the whole list from Intertops for today's stage:

Mark Cavendish (THR) -167

Andre Greipel (OLO) +550

Tyler Farrar (GRM) +900

Alessandro Petacchi (LAM) +1200

Edvald Boasson Hagen (SKY) +2000

Ben Swift (SKY) +2500

Jose Joaquin Rojas (MOV) +2800

Denis Galimzyanov (KAT) +3300

Philippe Gilbert (OLO) +3300

Romain Feillu (VCD) +3300

Thor Hushovd (GRM) +4000

Borut Bozic (VCD) +5000

Geraint Thomas (SKY) +5000

Gerald Ciolek (QST) +6600

Jerome Pineau (QST) +8000

Mark Renshaw (THR) +10000

Matthew Goss (THR) +10000

Samuel Dumoulin (COF) +10000

Sebastien Hinault (ALM) +10000

Simon Gerrans (SKY) +10000

Sylvain Chavanel (QST) +10000

William Bonnet (FDJ) +10000

Even if he was beaten in yesterday's sprint Mark Cavendish remains the fastest man in the bunch and I think that he won't let the opportunity slip away today, I think that he will beat everybody in the mass sprint and even convincingly. However, the only top sprinter that hasn't yet won a stage is Italian Alessandro Petacchi and his determination might push him forward today. Good luck!

Mark Cavendish had no rivals today, he dominated the mass sprint and beat Andre Greipel and Tyler Farrar quite clearly. The stage ended under heavy rain but that didn't stop Cavendish, we grabbed his revenge on Greipel and also nicked the Green Jersey (points classification) off Philippe Gilbert. The fast men will have a torrid time tomorrow though, big strong blokes like them will be left behind on the first tortuous climbs in the Pyrenees...

Sounds like tomorrow will be very interesting.

Looking forward to the next leg.

blue

It will be more than interesting Blue, just take a look at the profile of the stage!

The list of climbs is impressive as well, many riders will have huge problems today:

Hourquette d'Ancizan (1538 m) - 9.9 km climb to 7.5 % - Category 1

Col du Tourmalet (2115 m) - 17.1 km climb to 7.3 % - Category H (that means special category)

Luz-Ardiden (1715 m) - 1.3 km climb to 7.4 % - Category H

This will be the first big test for the favourites, we might not know who will win the 2011 Tour de France at the end of the day but we will surely know more about who will not win it. Here are the odds for today's stage from Intertops:

Alberto Contador (SBS) +250

Andy Schleck (LEO) +350

Samuel Sanchez (EUS) +1000

Cadel Evans (BMC) +1200

Frank Schleck (LEO) +1200

David Moncoutie (COF) +1400

Ivan Basso (LIQ) +2000

Damiano Cunego (LAM) +2500

Robert Gesink (RAB) +2500

Christophe Riblon (ALM) +4000

Rigoberto Uran (SKY) +4000

Anthony Charteau (EUC) +5000

Jakob Fuglsang (LEO) +5000

Paolo Tiralongo (AST) +5000

Peter Velits (THR) +5000

Pierre Rolland (EUC) +5000

Remy Di Gregorio(AST) +5000

Roman Kreuziger (AST) +5000

Sandy Casar (FDJ) +5000

Andreas Kloden (RSH) +6600

Cyril Gautier (EUC) +6600

David Arroyo (MOV) +6600

Jean-christophe Peraud (ALM) +6600

Rein Taaramae (COF) +6600

Ryder Hesjedal (GRM) +6600

Sylvain Chavanel (QST) +6600

Tejay Van Garderen (THR) +6600

Tom Danielson (GRM) +6600

Bauke Mollema (RAB) +8000

Hubert Dupont (ALM) +8000

Jerome Coppel (SAU) +8000

Levi Leipheimer (RSH) +8000

Nicolas Roche (ALM) +8000

Tony Martin (THR) +8000

Chris Anker Sorensen (SBS) +10000

Christian Vande Velde (GRM) +10000

Egoi Martinez (EUS) +10000

Haimar Zubeldia (RSH) +10000

Luis-leon Sanchez (RAB) +10000

Maxime Monfort (LEO) +10000

Thomas Voeckler (EUC) +10000

Vladimir Karpets (KAT) +10000

Kevin De Weert (QST) +12500

Laurens Ten Dam (RAB) +12500

Rui Alberto Faria Da Costa (MOV) +12500

Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck are the favorites according to the bookies and I agree with them, they are the strongest in the mountains, at least on paper. You see, a rider can always have a bad day and such a bad day could mean arriving with a delay of more than 5 minutes at the end of a stage like this one. I think that Cadel Evans is in good shape from what I've seen so far so I would bet on him finishing inside the top 3 today. Contador will attack, he has to, Schleck will surely counter those attacks, but Evans could make his own race.

You're not kidding Johnny - that really does look like it will be hard work for the cyclists.  28k of mountain climbing will be very tough.

blue

... and it isn't the toughest stage in this year's Tour, we'll have some even more difficult stages in the Alps next week!

... and it isn't the toughest stage in this year's Tour, we'll have some even more difficult stages in the Alps next week!

Struth.  This really is an amazing race.  I'll be totally honest, I've never really taken a lot of notice of it before but all your coverage shows what true athletes and sportsmen these cyclists really are.

blue

I'm happy that I have managed to get some of my passion for cycling into these posts Blue, this sport really means a lot to me.

Now on to today's stage, it was a cracker! The riders had to endure lots of fatigue on the three climbs and it was one of the bookmakers' favourites who won it... No, it wasn't Contador. It wasn't Andy Schelck either, it was Samuel Sanchez! The Basque rider attacked at the beginning of the last climb of the day and held out during the last few kilometres to clinch a massive win after six tough hours in the saddle. Here is today's top 10:

Stage 12 classification

1. SANCHEZ Samuel (EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI) 6h 01' 15"

2. VANENDERT Jelle (OMEGA PHARMA - LOTTO) + 00' 07"

3. SCHLECK Frank (TEAM LEOPARD-TREK) + 00' 10"

4. BASSO Ivan (LIQUIGAS-CANNONDALE) + 00' 30"

5. EVANS Cadel (BMC RACING TEAM) + 00' 30"

6. SCHLECK Andy (TEAM LEOPARD-TREK) + 00' 30"

7. CUNEGO Damiano (LAMPRE - ISD) + 00' 35"

8. CONTADOR Alberto (SAXO BANK SUNGARD) + 00' 43"

9. VOECKLER Thomas (TEAM EUROPCAR) + 00' 50"

10. ROLLAND Pierre (TEAM EUROPCAR) + 00' 50"

There were two surprises today, at least for me. Firstly, I wasn't expecting Contador to finish 23 seconds behind Basso, Evans and Andy Schleck and no less than 33 seconds behind Frank Schleck, that shows that the Spanish rider is not in the greatest shape at the moment. Secondly, I wasn't expecting Thomas Voeckler to be so good in the mountains, he came just behind the big boys and managed to hold on to the yellow jersey on a very special day for the French, the 14th of July. The overall classification did suffer some changes though, here is the current top 10 after 12 stages and close to 52 hours in the saddle:

Overall Classification after 12 Stages

1. VOECKLER Thomas (TEAM EUROPCAR) 51h 54' 44"

2. SCHLECK Frank (TEAM LEOPARD-TREK) + 01' 49"

3. EVANS Cadel (BMC RACING TEAM) + 02' 06"

4. SCHLECK Andy (TEAM LEOPARD-TREK) + 02' 17"

5. BASSO Ivan (LIQUIGAS-CANNONDALE) + 03' 16"

6. CUNEGO Damiano (LAMPRE - ISD) + 03' 22"

7. CONTADOR Alberto (SAXO BANK SUNGARD) + 04' 00"

8. SANCHEZ Samuel (EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI) + 04' 11"

9. DANIELSON Tom (TEAM GARMIN - CERVELO) + 04' 35"

10. ROCHE Nicolas (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 04' 57"

We'll have another torrid day in the Pyrenees tomorrow but maybe a bit lighter than today as the riders will have to face just one fierce climb instead of three. However, coming after today there will still be some fatigue in some riders' legs tomorrow.

The second day in the Pyrenees should be more quiet than the first, there is just one special category climb and the peak is 40 km before the finish line.

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/1300/PROFIL.gif

The climb is a serious one though, 16.4 km to 7.1 %, but since it's a long way from the end of the stage we might not see any attacks from the favourites there. This stage seems to be made for the breakaway specialists that also are decent climbers but I believe that downhill specialists might have an advantage as well since the last 40 km are almost entirely downhill. Here are the odds from Intertops:

Philippe Gilbert +900

Edvald Boasson Hagen +1000

Sylvain Chavanel +1000

Luis Leon Sanchez Gil +1200

David Moncoutie +2000

Thor Hushovd +2000

Jerome Pineau +2200

Samuel Sanchez +2200

Simon Gerrans +2200

Christophe Riblon +2500

Carlos Barredo +2800

David Arroyo +2800

Jelle Vanendert +2800

Peter Velits +2800

Rigoberto Uran +2800

Roman Kreuziger +2800

Yuri Trofimov +2800

Cadel Evans +3300

Damiano Cunego +3300

Geraint Thomas +3300

Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil +3300

Nicolas Roche +3300

Ryder Hesjedal +3300

Sandy Casar +3300

Tony Martin +3300

Egoi Martinez +4000

Johnny Hoogerland +4000

Linus Gerdemann +4000

Paolo Tiralongo +4000

Sergio Paulinho +4000

Thomas De Gendt +4000

Thomas Voeckler +4000

Alberto Contador Verlasco +5000

Bauke Mollerma +5000

David Millar +5000

Jakob Fuglsang +5000

Julien El Fares +5000

Leonardo Duque +5000

Remi De Gregorio +5000

Vladimir Gusev +5000

Bjorn Leukemans +6600

Blel Kadri +6600

Dmitri Fofonov +6600

Hubert Dupont +6600

Maxime Bouet +6600

Rui Costa +6600

Philippe Gilbert is the favourite according to the bookies and I guess they are right, the Belgian champion could attack on the downhill section if he manages to reach the peak along with the others. I think that we will have a strong breakaway today with many French riders, they will be trying to push hard since there was no French stage winner so far in this Tour.

There weren't any changes at the top of the general classification but it was a beautiful stage nonetheless. As expected, the breakaway riders provided the entertainment, Frenchman Jeremy Roy was in command at the top of the last climb with fellow countryman David Moncutie and World Champion Thor Hushovd a couple of minutes behind him. Hushovd is well-known for his downhill abilities and bravery and he did what was expected from somebody like him: he threw himself on the descent and managed to reel in Jeremy Roy with just two kilometres to go. Then he sprinted away and nobody could catch him, the World Champion pulled off a great victory.

Tomorrow will be a totally different story, the big favourites will be the ones who will attack and eventually win the stage on yet another fierce climb in the Pyrenees.

Today will be the last one in the Pyrenees for the peloton and it will also be the toughest: they will have to go past five climbs before reaching the final ascent of the day, the incredibly tough one towards Plateau De Beille.

So, there will be around 53 kilometres of climbing today and some riders will definitely feel those in the legs at some point. The list of climbs for today is quite impressive, we should have great entertainment:

Km 26.5 - Col de Portet-d'Aspet (1 069 m) - 4.3 km climb to 9.7 % - Category 2

Km 62.5 - Col de la Core (1 395 m) - 14.1 km climb to 5.7 % - Category 1

Km 94.0 - Col de Latrape (1 110 m) - 5.6 km climb to 7.2 % - Category 2

Km 109.0 - Col d'Agnes (1 570 m) - 10.0 km climb to 8.2 % - Category 1

Km 118.0 - Port de Lers (1 517 m) - 3.8 km climb to 5.5 % - Category 3

Km 168.5 - Plateau de Beille - 15.8 km climb to 7.9 % - Category H (special category)

This will be an important day for the big favourites, there will surely be attacks between them on the final climb. There also is an interesting tradition regarding this finish, every rider who has previously won at Plateau de Beille has gone on to the win the Tour that same year! Here are the odds from Intertops for today's stage:

Alberto Contador +250

Andy Schleck +350

Frank Schleck +450

Samuel Sanchez +750

Ivan Basso +1200

Cadel Evans +1400

Jelle Vanendert +1800

Damiano Cunego +2800

David Moncoutie +3500

Rigoberto Uran +4000

Levi Leipheimer +5000

Paolo Tiralongo +5000

Peter Velits +5000

Robert Gesink +5000

Anthony Charteau +6600

Christophe Riblon +6600

David Arroyo +6600

Hubert Dupont +6600

Laurens Ten Dam +6600

Remi Di Gregorio +6600

Roman Kreuziger +6600

Sandy Casar +6600

Sylvain Chavanel +6600

Arnold Jeannesson +8000

Rein Taaramae +8000

TJ Van Garderen +8000

Tom Danielson +8000

Driers Devenyns +10000

Jeremy Roy +10000

Kevin De Weert +10000

Andrey Zeits +15000

Nicolas Roche +15000

Philippe Gilbert +15000

Gorka Verdugo +20000

Vladimir Karpets +20000

Alberto Contador is the favourite, everybody expects him to attack and make up for the time that he has lost up to this point. There will be huge pressure on him to succeed today but considering his form in the first two weeks I doubt that he will be able to win this stage. I think that one of the Schleck brothers is most likely to win today's stage, they will have the advantage of being together, they will attack one after the other again and it will be tough for their rivals to respond. Anyway, however it goes it will be a fantastic day of cycling! 

Another tough day ahead for the riders.

Thanks for the update Johnny.

blue

I have to say that today's stage was a bit disappointing: the big favourites didn't look willing to attack, all they did was to keep an eye on each other and they arrived together as a result. That situation provided an opportunity for Belgian rider Jelle Vandendert, he attacked with 7 km to go, the big favourites didn't counter him and he went on to win this prestigious stage after finishing second to Samuel Sanchez two days ago. This time it was Samuel Sanchez who came in second while Andy Schleck finished 3rd, just two seconds ahead of his rivals: Alberto Contador, Cadel Evans, Ivan Basso, Franck Schleck and a surprising Thomas Voeckler.

It sounds like a really tight race Johnny. 

I have a question though; how do they do the scoring?

blue

I have a question though; how do they do the scoring?

It's simple, only the time is taken into account for the general classification. For each rider the time between start and finish for every stage is counted. Then that time is added to the ones that he recorded in the previous stages and the fastest one wears the yellow leader's jersey. I hope my explanation is clear enough. It might not be clear though so I'm adding a quick and maybe clearer one from Wikipedia:

The yellow jersey (maillot jaune) is worn by the general classification leader. This is decided by totalling the time each rider takes on the daily stages. The rider with the lowest overall time at the end of each stage receives a ceremonial yellow bicycling jersey and the right to start the next stage of the Tour in the yellow jersey. The rider to receive the yellow jersey after the last stage in Paris, is the overall winner of the Tour.

Your own paragraph was a good explanation.  Thank you Johnny.

blue

Your own paragraph was a good explanation.  Thank you Johnny.

 

blue

Thanks, I was quite nervous about this. :)

Your own paragraph was a good explanation.  Thank you Johnny.

 

blue

 

Thanks, I was quite nervous about this. :)

Awww bless you Johnny :-*

After three hot days in the mountains the riders will have a bit of a break today with a flat stage that will probably end in a mass sprint.

The general classification favourites will still have to be focused and careful though, there always are dangers on the road and their teams will work hard to keep them out of harm's way. The sprinters that have survived the mountain stages will have another chance to shine after arriving with huge delays on the high altitude finishes. Here are the odds from Intertops for today's stage:

Mark Cavendish -154

Andre Greipel +700

Tyler Farrar +800

Alessandro Petacchi +1600

Edvald Boasson Hagen +2000

Jose Joaquin Rojas +2200

Borut Bozic +3300

Ben Swift +4000

Gerald Ciolek +5000

Thor Hushovd +5000

Philippe Gilbert +6000

Fabian Cancellara +8000

Andriy Grivko +10000

Sylvain Chavanel +10000

Samuel Dumoulin +15000

Sebastien Hinault +15000

Mark Renshaw +20000

Sebastien Turgot +20000

In fact, there are not too many sprinters remaining as some of them withdrew from the race as they couldn't survive the three days in the Pyrenees. Mark Cavendish is still there though and I believe that he is going to win today although the likes of Greipel and Farrar will be trying to counter him. The British sprinter is the fastest man though and if everything goes well he will win again.

As expected, today's stage ended in a mass sprint. And when a stage ends like that you know who wins: Mark Cavendish! The British sprinter grabbed his fourth win in this year's Tour de France and the 19th victory overall in this race. His rivals couldn't do more than fight for the second place, it was Tyler Farrar who grabbed it ahead of Alessandro Petacchi. The riders will have a well-deserved rest day tomorrow, a good opportunity for me to analyse the general classification tomorrow morning.

Do you think Mark Cavendish will win it overall?

blue